Fundamental Analysis
During October, EUR had an instability course but with a bold deprecating trend; near final of the month it has started to slightly recover
Early on the month USA PMI values were greater than forecasted and unemployment rate the opposite, bearing appreciation of the USD, but in the middle of the month data about oil production was released showing a stock decrease. USA retail sales and PPI values were also greater than expected and both with positive variations keeping up USD on ascending track. On 20th at ECB Press Conference Draghi kept monetary policy unchanged leading for December any change. Later on the month, German and French Manufacturing PMI were encouraging as well and German Business Climate too. On the other hand, the Consumer Confidence US data release was discouraging and new data showed 0.7M barrels reduction on crude oil inventories, affecting USDRead more.
Technical Analysis
October was characterized by a big bearish move followed by a bullish retracement.
Price started by bouncing off a strong resistance area around 1.1260, it then proceeded to respect a support area around 1.1135. The downward momentum proved itself strong as price broke through the support area, at the same time the MACD crossed below the signal line, confirming the bearish momentum, then reached another strong support area around 1.0970. The bearish move showed sign of weakness during 24th October, as MACD crossed the signal line from below and price barely moving, closing almost at the same price it opened (1.0880). Bidding price reached monthly low during October 25th (1.0850), but closed above opening price by 6 pips. Then a bullish retracement started to gain shape as price rose to 1.0991 by October 28th, confirmed by MACD crossing the centerline from below. Price then consolidated at the level during the rest of the month, and MACD reached monthly high on October 31st at 0.0017.
The election of the United Nation’s Secretary-General
António Guterres, the former socialist Portuguese prime minister, is the new secretary-general of the United Nations.
At 13th October, the 193- members of the United Nations General Assembly unanimously appointed Guterres as the ninth secretary-general for the next five years beginning Jan. 1, 2017. He will replace Ban Ki-moon of South Korea, after serving two five year terms.
The UN general assembly approved the recommendation made by the Security Council, on 5th October, when all the 15 ambassadors nominated Guterres by acclamation after its sixth informal poll to announce that they had agreed on António Guterres to take up the job of the world's top diplomat. The secretary general of the United Nations, its described as the “most impossible job in the world”. He has to run a heavy bureaucracy and manage the competing demands of the world's big powers. A key requisite of the role is to step in both publicly and privately to prevent international disputes from escalating. The post lasts for five years but is limited to a maximum of two terms. (Source: BBC)
Guterres started in 1976 in Portugal's first democratic election. In 1992, he became the leader of the Socialist party and was elected prime minister in 1995. As head of the UN Refugee Agency from 2005 to 2015, Guterres led the agency through some of the world's worst refugee crises, including Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq. In that time, he repeatedly appealed to Western states to do more to help refugees fleeing the conflicts. (Source: CNN)
Despite Ban Ki-moon said that it should be a woman to succeed him, preferably from eastern Europe, with widespread sentiment that this year it was time for a woman to run the organization for the first time in its 71-year, Gutteres managed to defeat his competition. There were 13 candidates: Irina Bokova, Helen Clark, Kristalina Georgieva, Natalia Gherman, Vuk Jeremić, Srgjan Kerim, Miroslav Lajčák, Susana Malcorra, Danilo Türk and also Vesna Pusić, Igor Lukšić and Christiana Figueres who withdrew their applications during the process. Guterres won 13 votes in his support and two abstentions, with no one voting against him. In the final ballot, the highestplaced woman candidate, Irina Bokova, finished fourth. The quick end to the contest was a blow for the European commission’s vice-president, Kristalina Georgieva, who made a belated entry to the race. Her candidacy only lasted a few days and eight council members voted against her, including two permanent member vetoes.
António Guterres appears to fulfill the criteria diplomats have set forth for leading the U.N.: strong character, charisma, and an ability to mobilize and inspire world leaders. He promised to act as an "honest broker" and said he would take a humble approach in trying to deal with global issues, with human dignity at the core of his work. "Diversity can bring us together, not drive us apart," Guterres told the General Assembly. "We must make sure that we are able to break this alliance between all those terrorist groups or violent extremists on one side and the expressions of populism and xenophobia on the other side," he said. "These two reinforce each other, and we must be able to fight both with determination". (Source: Reuters)
Despite Mr. Guterres being the favored candidate of U.S. and European Security Council members, the members’ rapid merged around his candidacy. The fact that he was promising to be an activist on humanitarian causes also makes Guterres victory surprising, as both Russia and China have been resistant to outspoken activists in top UN posts. The United States' Ambassador to the UN, Samantha Power, said the recommendation of Guterres went smoothly because he was broadly considered the most competent person for the job based on his experience, vision and versatility. On the other hand, Russian UN Ambassador said: "We have a clear favorite and his name is Antonio Guterres". Russia, one of the council’s five members with veto power, was considered the wild card in the selection process after earlier indicating it preferred the U.N.’s top job go to an Eastern European for the first time. The U.K. Ambassador to the U.N., Matthew Rycroft, said Guterres “will make a very strong, effective secretary-general of the United Nations at a crucial time for the world and for this organization.” Also, the U.N. director at international nongovernmental organization Human Rights Watch also celebrated the selection of Guterres as secretary-general. “I think it’s an excellent choice,” said Michael Doyle, a former UN assistant secretary general and now a Columbia University professor. In Lisbon, Prime Minister António Costa voiced “great satisfaction” over the U.N.’s choice. “I am proud as a Portuguese, and I think it brings prestige to the U.N.”(Source: Wall Street Journal and The Guardian).
Guterres will not have an easy task and many are setting high expectations. Whether he can meet them will not only depend on his skills, but also on the five veto-wielding powers of the Security Council. He will be facing many challenges like terrorism, the refugee crisis in Europe, the war at Syria and Yemen, the acquisition of nuclear weapons by North Korea, the several problems in Africa, the climate change or even the question of internal reform at the UN. Challenges that lies ahead as very difficult and hard to manage.
Did you know
… that in the forex market, you only need to follow eight major economies?
They are: United States, Eurozone (specially Germany, France, Italy and Spain), Japan, United Kingdom, Switzerland, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. Those have the largest and most advanced financial markets in the world. By strictly concentrating on these eight, you can determine which will provide the best undervalued or overvalued opportunities on the most credit-worthy and liquid instruments in the financial markets. Economic data is released from these countries on an almost daily basis, allowing investors to stay on top of the game when it comes to assessing the health of each country and its economy. (Source: Investopedia)